民族地区民生科技需求意愿及影响因素

正确引导民族地区民众民生科技需求意愿,对提高民族地区科技配置水平、加速民族地区发展具有重要意义。以新疆为例,利用调查问卷数据构建Logit实证分析模型,发现民族地区民生科技需求意愿及影响因素不仅与非民族地区存在较大差异,而且民族地区城乡间异质性也较为明显。研究结果可为民族地区制定适宜的民生科技推广政策提供经验支撑。     

新疆样本县（市）农户借贷行为调查分析

本文通过对新疆玛纳斯县、呼图壁县、吉木萨尔县、吐鲁番市、托克逊县农村信用社和农户的实地调查,对农户的借贷需求行为进行了分析,得出了农户借贷行为的特征。本文认为农户的经济行为特征和资金需求特征对其金融需求具有十分重要的影响。     

人才需求特征与高新技术产业增长的相关性研究

在金融危机对我国制造业的冲击下,高新技术产业作为我国国民经济的战略性先导产业,对产业结构调整和经济增长方式转变发挥着重要作用。本文通过分析高新技术产业各行业人才需求特征,进而探讨高新技术产业结构调整和人才供给的建议。     

Distribution contracts to support optimal inventory holdings under demand uncertainty

When suppliers produce products for which demand is uncertain, they face a problem of inducing downstream distributors to stock inventory levels that the suppliers prefer. This paper considers a wide array of alternative supply contracts, each of which consists of a mixture of constant per-unit wholesale prices, buy-back arrangements, and post sale payments contingent on sales made, such as revenue sharing or buybacks. We show that linear supply contracts specifying any combination of two of these three instruments can implement the vertical integrated outcome for a monopoly, thereby generating the supplier's preferred inventory configuration and price distribution. We extend our results to differentiated product oligopoly, demonstrating that each supplier obtains its preferred inventory configuration and price distribution, given the choices of its rival. Distributors choose optimal inventories from the suppliers' standpoint, even if suppliers do not know the distribution of demand uncertainty, and, given the perfect competition among distributors, all profits in the supply chain are captured by suppliers. Thus, suppliers are able to deal with demand uncertainty with remarkably little information about demand, and without the need to control dealer actions in detail. In particular, suppliers need not specify either dealer inventories or resale prices, but instead encourage distributors to order based on information in their possession and to set prices that generate desirable resale price dispersion.     

Three bubbles and a panic: An explanatory review of recent food commodity price events

This paper is a summary of the behaviour of food commodity prices in 2007–2008 and a review of the causes of the price increases, extracted from a report to the Chief Scientific Advisor to Her Majesty’s Government [Thirtle, C., Piesse, J., 2008. An Explanatory Review of the World Food Commodity Price Events of 2007–2008. A Report to the Chief Scientific Advisor. Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills, London]. The historical background shows that the price spike was much less severe than in the 1970s. The conventional wisdom that prices of the main food commodities were falling prior to 2006 is questioned. Most ceased falling and were quite stable from the 1980s. The paper separates the causes of the spike from the underlying changes driving the long run trends. The literature on the causes of the spike is critically reviewed and summarised. There is a reasonably broad consensus on most of the causes, but much less on the impact of the depreciation of the US Dollar. There are also concluding speculations on the future.     

几乎理想需求系统面板数据模型的非参数估计分析

本文探讨几乎理想需求系统的估计问题,充分考虑到各类商品价格数据的局限性和模型中各类商品消费份额的联立内生性,逐步建立一个可以得到估计的几乎理想需求系统非参数面板数据模型;给出其非参数局部线性估计方法,并将非参数估计方法应用于珠三角地区城镇居民消费支出结构的估计和分析,由此对消费支出进行弹性分析。     

Reputation and the league standing effect: the case of a split season in minor league baseball

Split season league design resets standings at the midpoint of the season, thus allowing for two periods in which a team can potentially achieve success in a single season. This context allows us to test both the reputation of the first half winner and the league standing effect on demand. Examination of game-level data from the 2010 Southern League reveals fans are unaffected by measures of both team quality and league standing in the second half of the season. On the other hand, the first half winners saw an 11% increase in attendance as a percent of stadium capacity, suggesting that in the second half of the season winners matter more than winning.     

FDI与中国经济增长:1992～2007年的实证检验

本文在柯布—道格拉斯生产函数的基础上,利用1992～2007年的数据来分析了外国直接投资(FDI)对经济增长的影响,检验结果表明,我国经济增长与FDI及其滞后量具有较高的正相关关系,这说明FDI对经济增长的贡献存在着当年的需求效应和滞后年份的供给效应。本文最后部分在给出结论的基础上针对中国目前的现实情况提出了一些政策建议。     

美国减少航班延误的有效途径及启示

航班延误是世界民航业的痼疾,也是各个国家旅客对航空公司服务不满意的主要方面之一。各国都采取了各种措施减少航班延误,美国民航管理部门采用的主要方法有容量提升和需求管理方法,在一些地区取得了良好效果,尤其是采取的需求管理方法如航班上限规则不仅减少了平均延误时间,而且还降低了航班延误率。我国在减少航班延误方面也采取了一些措施,但效果甚微。本文首先通过分析我国航班延误的现状、存在的问题及已经采取的一些治理方式,其次介绍了美国航班延误治理的方法和措施,最后提出我国要从根本上解决航班延误率偏高的问题的观点和建议：一方面应加强基础设施建设,加大容量提升力度,从绝对量上应对较高地航班延误率;另一方面采用市场化手段,实施需求管理,从相对量上优化资源配置进而有效减少航班延误。最后,进一步完善现有航班延误治理机制。     

工业结构变迁的动因和类型——新中国60年工业化历程回顾

本文从工业结构的视角对新中国60年工业化历程进行了回顾和分析。构建了一个探讨工业结构变迁动力机制的分析框架,并在此基础上分析了新中国成立以来工业结构变迁的动因和类型。结果表明:1978年之前,中国工业结构演变趋势极不稳定,且与发达国家工业化的一般规律存在很大差异,原因在于政府过度干预工业结构演变过程。1978年以来,中国工业结构明显升级,趋势稳定性逐步增强,先后出现了适应需求结构和要素结构的两轮工业结构变迁,此外国际贸易和国际投资对我国工业结构变迁的影响力正不断加强。